Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook April 2022
Report summary
Prices appeared to be heading down further until the EU’s official announcement of the ban on Russian coal imports was announced on 8 April. What ensued in the market was the diverging expectations of buyer and seller on where the price of met coal should land. Falling steel margins and improving supply helped keep a lid on the price as traders bet on the prospect of tighter markets leading up to the ban. Numerous Covid outbreaks in China kept steel demand down during a typically busy season. Coal prices rose on travel restrictions and inefficiencies between mine, oven and mill. Russian coals are finding homes while Australian supply continues to improve. Despite this improvement, we are entering a murky period for markets over the next few months with risks of price volatility.
Table of contents
- Volatility defined the month’s FOB markets
- Tight domestic Chinese supply situation supports prices
- Outlook: volatility remains the name of the game for spot FOB cargoes
- Outlook: workarounds for Russian coal cargoes improving
- Outlook: improving near-term domestic and import supply on the horizon
- Outlook: little to no immediate impacts from China lifting coal import tariffs
- China: April’s steel rebounded as winter cut restrictions lifted
- China: steel production upside is limited in Q2 amid Covid restrictions
- India: coal demand gaining pace into Q2
- Europe: steel companies shifting away from Russian coal ahead of ban
- Japan: government signals a ban on Russian coal but no details to date
- Australia: mine restarts and expansions to bolster supply after an extended wet season
- Australia: Queensland exports rebound in March but dampened again in April
- Australia: Quarterly results overshadowed by Anglo’s production downgrade
- Russia: exports remain resistant though August’s EU ban looms
- Mozambique: Moatize’s production down in Q1 as Vale completes its coal exit
- United States: logistics still a major pain point for producers
Tables and charts
This report includes 12 images and tables including:
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- Indian metallurgical coal imports
- Indian coke and pig iron prices
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Crude steel production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Average rainfall across Qld met coal mines
- Worst impacted Qld met coal mines (Nov to Apr)
- Queensland ports: Met coal exports (Mt per month)
- BHP’s met coal production (Mt)
- Australia met coal production by company (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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