Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook June 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 30 June 2022

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Report summary

Fundamentals for coal markets in the month of June went topsy-turvy. Correction of the Queensland PLV benchmark took place throughout the month, crashing over $100/t – from over US$400/t at the beginning of the month to near $300/t at month’s end. However, the price for premium thermal coal defied previously accepted logic that it must be under the Queensland PLV benchmark. We believe this trend will continue into July, as utilities in APAC and Europe are desperate for high-CV spot coal, due to the lack of available natural gas supply. Inflationary pressures on steel demand and renewed metallurgical coal supply from Australia will keep pressure on prices for the rest of 2022. We are still maintaining the view that the Queensland PLV benchmark monthly average will stay above $300/t, however. Another increase in metallurgical coal supply in 2023 from major exporters will further the decrease in price, toward the $200/t mark at year end.

PLV takes a dive, but fundamentals will limit how low it will go
Import action into China under constraints amid lower domestic demand
Outlook: prices to remain stagnant, especially for lower-volatile coals
Outlook: China metallurgical coal supply to increase in the near term, but risks are to the downside
China: demand collapsed amid slower industrial activities and a bearish outlook
- Coke
India: high input prices and tepid demand keep imports range bound
Japan: shaky economy and weaker Japanese yen to hurt coking coal demand
Australia: supply recovering
- Operations
United States: rail performance is improving, allowing for improving spot offers
- Operations
China
India
Australia
Russia

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

PLV FOB price, % change month-on-month
CFR China price, % change month-on-month
Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)

Indian metallurgical coal imports
Indian coke and pig iron prices
Chinese monthly metallurgical coke exports by destination (Mt)
Queensland ports: metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)
Average rainfall across Qld met coal mines
BMA's CY production forecast

What's included

This report contains:

Metallurgical Coal Markets Short Term Outlook Data June 2022.xlsx

XLSX 501.32 KB
Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook June 2022

PDF 962.83 KB