Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook May 2022
Report summary
It was a relatively stable period for most of May for seaborne met coal prices. However, in the last few days of the month, markets reminded us how volatile coal prices can be as it appears there are cracks forming in the high met coal price foundation. Renewed supply efforts and weakening demand are conspiring to pull prices down. A high inflation and interest rate environment will also help take the air out of pricing over the remainder of 2022, with lower demand. Pushing back are the inefficiencies from the Russian war trade sanctions and China’s ongoing ban on Australian coal. China continues to battle on two key fronts – a weakening economy and a rash of Covid outbreaks in major centres. Any chance of getting close to achieving its lofty 2022 economic goals are intrinsically tied to winning these fights. Met coal demand direction will be dictated by China’s degree and time frame of success.
Table of contents
- PLV remained abnormally high and range-bound but there are changes afoot
- Import action into China limited to Russia and Mongolia
- Outlook: price correction underway with an important intersection near
- Outlook: improving near-term domestic and import supply on the horizon
-
China: demand recovery intrinsically linked to Covid policy and stimulus
- Coke
- Trade & Logistics
-
India: Indian policy changes aim to drive down domestic steel and raw material prices
- Coke
- Trade & Logistics
-
Australia: mine restarts and expansions to bolster supply after an extended wet season
- Operations
- Trade & Logistics
-
Russia: eastern exports strong as August’s EU ban looms
- Operations
- Trade & Logistics
-
Mozambique: Moatize workers go on strike
- Operations
Tables and charts
This report includes 8 images and tables including:
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- Chinese BF utilisation (%) - monthly, national ave
- Chinese coke inventories - monthly, national ave
- Indian metallurgical coal imports
- Indian metallurgical coke trade flows
- Average rainfall across Qld met coal mines
- Met coal production - restarts and greenfield projects
- Queensland ports: Met coal exports (Mt per month)
What's included
This report contains:
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