Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2018: Premium HCC exporters find new benefactor as China prices flounder
Report summary
Demand for coking coal in China has been hurt by falling steel prices, reducing the incentive to continue high levels of steel production and need for coking coal. Australian supply struggled in H2 2018, with maintenance at DBCT and at BMA’s Hay Point. The next quarter will continue to be shaped by faltering supply, but 2019 should see some improvement, if the weather does not toss in a black swan event. The price for Australian low-volatile HCC will fall to the about US$185/t by mid year.
Table of contents
- China's domestic prices hold up while 2019 term contracts settled
- PCI term prices settles
- Supply restrictions to dominate outlook through Q1
- Never a dull moment in the Australian summer
- Queensland's first cyclone leaves only minor scrape on coal sector
- Rolling rail strikes take toll on Aurizon
- Ramaco begins to ship HV coal again
- Mission Coal asks to file stalking horse bid
- OKD to close Lazy mine instead of going deeper
- China demand lower due to winter restrictions and lower steel prices
- India mulls retaliatory steel tariffs but holds off for now
- Baowu locating a new plant on the coast
- Algoma Steel purchases Essar Steel’s Canadian mill
- Global steel and hot metal production decline in November
Tables and charts
This report includes 6 images and tables including:
- Key Prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
- Queensland ports: metallurgical coal exports (Mt)
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Crude Steel production - other major producers
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Blast Furnace hot metal production - other major producers (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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