Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook January 2019: Plenty of excitement in lead up to Chinese New Year celebrations

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31 January 2019

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook January 2019: Plenty of excitement in lead up to Chinese New Year celebrations

Report summary

The metallurgical market remained wedded to events in China this month. A swift US$25/t correction in early January was followed by a late month recovery after Chinese supply felt the force of mine holiday closures, and enforced safety checks. Despite some sobering economic indicators, we expect supply constraints in both China and most international supply countries to keep prices above US$200/t for the next couple of months. Demand for imported met coals will grow this year, but Australian supply is promising a solid recovery after two years of disappointment, which should lead to lower average prices this year. Of course, we have been in this situation before, and there remain many challenges for suppliers. China's supply reforms remain centre stage suggesting a low probability of major changes to price support levels this year.

Table of contents

  • Near-term price support will eventually yield to improved supply
  • Markets subject to a variety of risks
  • Australian
    • Anglo American
    • BHP
    • Peabody
  • Project development being fast-tracked wherever possible
  • Vale's tailings dam tragedy
  • Russia fighting logistics battles
  • China economic outlook darkens
  • Economic slowdown to continue in 2019
  • Metallurgical coal demand should recover after slow start to year
  • Faltering Chinese supply will support met coal imports
  • Indian mills position for investment

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Key Prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
  • Moranbah 3-month rainfall history
  • Emerald 3-month rainfall history
  • Queensland Ports: metallurgical coal exports (Mt)
  • Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
  • Crude steel production - other major producers (Mt)
  • Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
  • Blast furnace hot metal production - other major producers (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms_metallurgical_trade_short_term_outlook_january_2019.xls

    XLS 2.80 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook January 2019: Plenty of excitement in lead up to Chinese New Year celebrations

    PDF 944.44 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook January 2019: Plenty of excitement in lead up to Chinese New Year celebrations

    ZIP 2.49 MB

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