Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook May 2020: Hazards ahead on the road to recovery Report

Commodity Market Report 31 May 2020

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Report summary

Market prospects for May seemed particularly gloomy for producers; however, prices surprised on several factors. Despite a slight slowdown in the torrid pace of Chinese imports YTD, purchases in advance of a rumoured strict 1 July import quota restriction fuelled June laycans. An accident at an Australian mine removed a source of premium coking coal supply. Prices teased new lows before stabilising as markets look to the second half of 2020 to turn the economic corner on record stimulus injections and recovering demand. A return to a market balance is in the cards; however, there is likely further pain before the gain.

June to test pricing lows
India anchors second-half price recovery with China in important supporting role
Prices to surprise many in Q4
Import quotas - the biggest wildcard to seaborne coal markets beyond coronavirus
From bad to worse for PCI
2020 and 2021 remain open to multiple market outcomes
Australia: Gas explosion suspends Grosvenor, Moranbah North restarts
Australia: Carborough Downs reduces board and pillar output on weak demand
China: ‘Two Sessions’ leads to mine safety inspections and production cuts
US: Most metallurgical coal mines return to dubious near-term demand after being idle
Canada: diminished demand and low prices claim first coal producer
China: Two Sessions leads to drop in Shanxi Province coke production
China: Shandong constrains coke production to meet 2020 coal consumption targets
India: coking coal imports bottom out as the country looks to turn the corner
India: coronavirus pandemic delays steel mill expansion plans
Japan: national emergency lifts but economic damage to linger
Japan: steel industry in retreat with metallurgical coal in tow
Europe: economy begins tough climb out of recession valley
Europe: side-lined steel production drags down coal imports in 2020
US: automotive restarts on rocky road

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
India seaborne metallurgical coal imports
European seaborne metallurgical coal imports

Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
Crude steel production – Ex-China producers (Mt)
Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
Blast furnace hot metal production – Ex-China producers (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

cms_metallurgical_trade_short_term_outlook_may_2020.xls

XLS 3.39 MB
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook May 2020: Hazards ahead on the road to recovery

PDF 934.56 KB