Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2018: Prices maintain poise, despite the noise

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29 November 2018

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2018: Prices maintain poise, despite the noise

Report summary

For the third year in succession metallurgical coal prices have risen into the fourth quarter as China's safety and pollution focus, and Australia's own supply problems, tighten the market. Sentiment has weakened this month after China's curbs on coking coal imports, and anxiety over economic growth, but prices have so far held firm. Price falls in December look inevitable but we maintain a view that average benchmark HCC prices should stay above US$200/t through Q1. 2019 will see some further falls but Chinese annual contract prices, and fundamentally tight supply will minimise the risk of a major correction.

Table of contents

  • 2019 Chinese term contract prices to be settled soon
  • No fireworks for PCI and SSCC
  • Southern Bowen Basin trip: Analysts find production positive, but costs increasing and transport still a problem
  • Fires temporarily close Blackwater rail line
  • More investment milestones in the metallurgical coal sector
  • Ramaco silo fails and pinches HV supply
  • Contura completes merger with Alpha
  • CONSOL plans new low-volatile mine in West Virginia
  • High prices encourage new prep plant builds in Pennsylvania
  • Chinese government speeds up investment to offset weak economic indicators
  • China import restrictions worsening but should be short-lived
  • Winter cuts have started but implementation still weaker than 2017
  • Possible Brexit outcomes could impact demand differently

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

  • Key Prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
  • Queensland ports: metallurgical coal exports (Mt)
  • Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
  • Crude Steel production - other major producers
  • Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
  • Blast Furnace hot metal production - other major producers (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms_metallurgical_trade_short_term_outlook_november_2018.xls

    XLS 2.64 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2018: Prices maintain poise, despite the noise

    PDF 905.04 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2018: Prices maintain poise, despite the noise

    ZIP 2.35 MB

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