Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2020: Coronavirus results in a fundamental shift
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
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Prices reach new lows as coronavirus destroys demand
- Phase 1: Recovery to marginal costs (2020 – 2024)
- Gas price recovery
- China's domestic coal prices provide support to seaborne prices
- Prices below 50th or 75th percentile costs are unsustainable
- Phase 2: Higher prices required to incentivise projects (2025 – 2029)
- Phase 3: Possible (riskier) project requirement provides buffer to fast demand decline (2030 – 2034)
- Phase 4: renewables and project approval risks weigh on prices (2035 – 2040)
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Global thermal coal demand growth continues through 2027
- Seaborne demand is influenced by government policies in key Asian nations
- China
- India
- Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
- Southeast Asia
- EMEARC and the Americas
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Producers grappling with requirement for supply cuts
- Mining costs likely to continue to decrease
- Country-level supply review: a decline in Indonesian supply provides upside for Australia and Russia
- Australia
- Indonesia
- Colombia
- Russia
- USA
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Global thermal coal demand for power
- Global thermal coal demand for non-power
- Seaborne thermal coal demand by region
- Seaborne thermal coal demand cumulative change by region
- ARA vs TTF gas price forecast (real 2020)
- Japan and South Korea coal-to-gas switching bands
- Calculation of China domestic FOB prices netback to Newcastle benchmark
- Newcastle price vs percentile costs, 6,322 kcal GAR
- Indonesia price vs percentile costs, 4,200 kcal GAR
- Phase I marker coal price forecast (real 2020, US$/t)
- Phase II marker coal price forecast (real 2020, US$/t)
- Supply gap vs FOB Newcastle market price
- 12 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains: