Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2018: weak demand drives prices down

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30 November 2018

Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2018: weak demand drives prices down

Report summary

Chinese imports restrictions, milder temperature in key Asian markets and increased availability of nuclear power generation has resulted in weaker demand across all coal types. Chinese import restrictions will last until the New Year at which time we expect utilities to increase their imports to replenish depleted stockpiles. In the Atlantic basin, despite higher coal generation, extremely low water levels on the Rhine River hindered coal movement from ARA terminals to power plants and kept ARA stocks at record highs while bringing stockpiles at power plants down to critical levels. The inability of ARA terminals to receive coal at normal rates for the period has artificially lowered demand for coal and brought prices crumbling down.

Table of contents

  • China: import restrictions uncertainty continues
  • India: utilities turn to imports as power generation surges
  • Japan: update on nuke availability and impact on coal burn
    • Australia: modest growth in high CV coal supply
    • Colombia: strong second rainy season hurts all producers
    • Canada: Vista mine starts next year

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