Global thermal coal short-term outlook October 2024

Global thermal coal markets over October produced prices that inspired little shock - good or bad, depending on your position at the negotiation table. Despite traditional restocking for northern hemisphere winter, spot prices for incremental cargoes traded within a narrow band for both high and low CV coals. Interestingly, the price for Newcastle 6000 spot cargoes remains particularly sticky. China's strong appetite for import coals continued unabated as the domestic/import price arbitrage remained open. Domestic demand remains weak while there has been little cause for Chinese supply to ramp up. Markets are in stalemate as both sides of the spot deal refuse to pay higher or sell lower as demand conditions evolve including the severity of winter conditions, gas dynamics and the extent of India's post monsoon return.