Global Thermal Coal Strategic Planning Outlook H1 2024 Report

Commodity Market Report 15 May 2024

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Report summary

The global thermal coal seaborne market is entering its declining journey though it still has some life with the energy transition delayed. However, demand faces a terminal decline by the end of the forecast - a shadow of its former self. While current operating supply is enough to meet demand, the market enters an interesting phase were new projects will be required despite a declining demand profile. Suppliers face real hurdles to bring new projects on including ESG, financing and permits risks. Looking past the price fireworks of 2022, prices look to settle into a range supported initially above marginal costs but a looming overcapacity will see prices under pressure. Longer term, prices must rise to support critical project development