Commodity Market Report

Global thermal short-term outlook April 2022

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29 April 2022

Global thermal short-term outlook April 2022

Report summary

The Russia-Ukraine war and Europe's quest for alternative suppliers continues to drive thermal coal shortages and extreme prices. Seaborne thermal coal prices rebounded upward from the end of March as several governments firmed plans to sanction Russian coal imports. Coal demand in Europe is expected to increase this year as the region struggles with natural gas supplies. Many countries have brought back on mothballed coal-fired units to ensure reliability. Yet, high prices are causing most other coal importers to retreat from the market.

Table of contents

  • High/low scenarios
  • China – soaring seaborne prices continued to curtail China’s buying interest
  • India – escalating coal crisis to drive imports growth
  • Japan – uncertainty around the Russia coal phase-out may cause more panic buying
  • Europe – prices to remain elevated as the market readies for a full Russian coal embargo
  • Australia – Supply set to recover, but labour challenges persist
  • Indonesia – strong demand and easing rainfall bodes well for exports
  • Russia – Europe stocks up on Russian coal before bans begin
  • South Africa – Rail uncertainty still a big risk for exports, while heavy rainfall persists

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

  • Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
  • Australia thermal coal exports
  • NSW power netbacks to 5,500 nar
  • Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)
  • Average rainfall across SA coal mines
  • Worst impacted SA export coal mines (1 Oct to 26 Apr)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global thermal short-term outlook April 2022

    PDF 1.07 MB

  • Document

    Global Thermal Short Term Outlook April 2022 Data.xlsx

    XLSX 591.67 KB