Global thermal short-term outlook July 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 29 July 2022

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The moment of truth has arrived for the seaborne thermal coal market as the European Union’s ban on Russian coal begins. The European appetite for alternative high calorific value (CV) coal imports is growing , as natural gas supply in the region appears increasingly volatile. Will Europe be able to source the coal it requires to keep power markets stable through the winter? At what cost to the wider global market?

China – seaborne thermal coal import in 2022 should be 64 Mt lower than last year
India – imports remain integral to alleviating the coal crisis
Europe – imports stranded by bottlenecks as EU leaders look to reduce gas reliance
- Indonesia – Record production in recent months but headwinds ahead
- Russia – eastbound rail quotas return
- Colombia – the return of Prodeco at risk
- South Africa – thermal coal exports continue into Europe
- High/low scenarios

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Australia thermal coal exports
Australia thermal coal tradeflow
Indonesia coal production and exports

Indonesia total coal exports by destination
Indonesian mines 7-day average rainfall (mm/week)
Russian eastbound export coal railings and quotas
South African monthly coal exports by country/region
Key prices - history and forecast (nominal US$/t)
Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%