Commodity Market Report

Global thermal short-term outlook July 2022

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29 July 2022

Global thermal short-term outlook July 2022

Report summary

The moment of truth has arrived for the seaborne thermal coal market as the European Union’s ban on Russian coal begins. The European appetite for alternative high calorific value (CV) coal imports is growing , as natural gas supply in the region appears increasingly volatile. Will Europe be able to source the coal it requires to keep power markets stable through the winter? At what cost to the wider global market?

Table of contents

  • China – seaborne thermal coal import in 2022 should be 64 Mt lower than last year
  • India – imports remain integral to alleviating the coal crisis
    • Indonesia – Record production in recent months but headwinds ahead
    • Russia – eastbound rail quotas return
    • Colombia – the return of Prodeco at risk
    • South Africa – thermal coal exports continue into Europe
    • High/low scenarios

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

  • Australia thermal coal exports
  • Australia thermal coal tradeflow
  • Indonesia coal production and exports
  • Indonesia total coal exports by destination
  • Indonesian mines 7-day average rainfall (mm/week)
  • Russian eastbound export coal railings and quotas
  • South African monthly coal exports by country/region
  • Key prices - history and forecast (nominal US$/t)
  • Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global thermal short-term outlook July 2022

    PDF 998.36 KB

  • Document

    global-thermal-short-term-outlook-july-2022-data (1).xlsx

    XLSX 564.42 KB