Global thermal short-term outlook November 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 30 November 2022

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Report summary

November was a volatile month for thermal coal markets, with prices falling mid-month to the lowest point seen since April – nearly falling to US$300/t for Newcastle benchmark – only to quickly rebound back above US$350/t by month’s end. Market sentiment was dampened mid-month by worries about a weakening global economy and improved outlook for natural gas supplies in Europe. However, by the end of November, colder weather starting to take hold in the Northern Hemisphere and supply disruptions abounded across major exporting regions

China –Prices for low rank seaborne coal are falling along with China domestic price
India – heating requirement during the winter will keep coal demand strong
Europe – demand to remain strong into 2023
Australia – Wet weather eases but impacts still apparent
Russia – increased rail cost and capacity availability pressure in 2023
South Africa – exports facing derailment and wet weather challenges
Colombia – blockades hamper Cerrejon shipments
High/low scenarios

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

Australia thermal coal exports
Newcastle coal shipments (met and thermal)
Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)

SA monthly coal exports by country/region
Average rainfall across SA coal mines
Key prices - history and forecast
Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%