Commodity Market Report

Global thermal short-term outlook November 2022

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30 November 2022

Global thermal short-term outlook November 2022

Report summary

November was a volatile month for thermal coal markets, with prices falling mid-month to the lowest point seen since April – nearly falling to US$300/t for Newcastle benchmark – only to quickly rebound back above US$350/t by month’s end. Market sentiment was dampened mid-month by worries about a weakening global economy and improved outlook for natural gas supplies in Europe. However, by the end of November, colder weather starting to take hold in the Northern Hemisphere and supply disruptions abounded across major exporting regions

Table of contents

  • China –Prices for low rank seaborne coal are falling along with China domestic price
  • India – heating requirement during the winter will keep coal demand strong
  • Europe – demand to remain strong into 2023
  • Australia – Wet weather eases but impacts still apparent
  • Russia – increased rail cost and capacity availability pressure in 2023
  • South Africa – exports facing derailment and wet weather challenges
  • Colombia – blockades hamper Cerrejon shipments
  • High/low scenarios

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Australia thermal coal exports
  • Newcastle coal shipments (met and thermal)
  • Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)
  • SA monthly coal exports by country/region
  • Average rainfall across SA coal mines
  • Key prices - history and forecast
  • Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%

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    Global thermal short-term outlook November 2022

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