India coal short-term outlook July 2024

India’s electricity demand surged again in Q2 2024 after dipping slightly in February. A hot summer across the country boosted cooling demand in the first two months of Q2 by 14% year-on-year. May saw record-breaking power generation across all sources, with a significant jump in coal, which rose 13% year-on-year and a surprising rebound in hydropower, which increased by 7% year-on-year after a 10-month decline. India’s hot metal production varied during Q2 2024. It declined 9% month-on-month in April due to steel mill maintenance shutdowns. However, the resumption of production and restocking demand ahead of the monsoons resulted in a 3% month-on-month increase in hot metal production in May. We expect steel demand to gain momentum starting in August. Demand will accelerate between August and October as India emerges from the monsoon and the government ramps up its infrastructure spending after the elections.