Indonesia coal supply summary

Indonesia's coal production in 2024 reached extraordinary levels rising to 836 Mt surpassing with the record levels of 2023. Export performance also set new records, with 555 Mt of coal shipped internationally in 2024. Raw coal output increased 13% in 2023 to 775 million tonnes following on a robust growth of 12% in the previous year. Higher coal prices incentivized the growth in output from key coal producing regions – East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan and Sumatra. We estimate that the growth was majorly driven by mid to low energy coal. Major coal producers are expanding coal production through investments in infrastructure. This combined with greenfield project starts will lead to increased supply in coming years. With increasing ESG concerns, Indonesian coal miners are taking steps to diversify their business to hedge against a steeply falling demand for low to mid grade coal in the long term.