Insight
Metallurgical coal energy transition outlook 2025
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Report summary
Seaborne metallurgical coal trade will shrink dramatically from current levels to just 142 Mt under net zero, versus 378 Mt in our base case. This represents a fundamental shift in global coal flows as major importers, including China and India, reverse growth trajectories. The price equilibrium will shift substantially lower as demand cuts deep into the cost curve. Benchmark PLV hard coking coal prices could fall to US$162 /tonne by 2050 under net zero scenarios, compared with US$225/ tonne in the base case. Read our report to understand: • How will the steelmaking industry need to adapt to meet these goals? • What do the 2-degree or 1.5-degree warming targets mean for metallurgical coal demand across product types and regions? • What will this mean for the seaborne met coal markets? • What are our price forecasts for PLV HCC under the pledges and net zero scenarios?
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