Commodity Market Report
Metallurgical coal market short-term outlook August 2021
Report summary
Strong steel margins clashed with substantial supply tightness in China and beyond. The result was all time record highs for domestic and CFR China coal prices. In the wake, PLV HCC FOB Australia prices rode the wave higher as importers and traders outside of China snapped up limited spot cargoes. Suppliers outside of Australia remain fixated on the lucrative Chinese market and their contract customers with little spot availability. Coke prices remain high, helping to buoy HCC prices. China’s mission to keep 2021 crude steel production levels below 2020 is proving to be a challenge. They will have to make every effort if they hope to limit carbon emissions while maintaining economic momentum. Will they actually achieve it? The ramifications are vast. China’s supply response, highly uncertain at this stage, dictates the direction of prices in China and beyond and shows the last four months of 2021 are fraught with ambiguity.
Table of contents
- Chinese supply woes continue
- Supply outside China remains hamstringed
-
Outlook: supply tightness to remain a feature of the market
- Chinese domestic supply hindered by capacity limits, but upside remains a risk
- Australian supply improvements in the pipeline as other producers remain flat-out
- China fails to curb steel production below 2020 levels
- PCI & SSCC: riding high on steel demand and lofty thermal coal prices
- China: steel production cuts picking up pace, but will they stick?
- China: tight domestic coal supply fuels string of coke price hikes
- China: decelerating industrial production highlights weakening economic indicators
- China: demand in upcoming peak property period to test production curb commitment
- India: strong metallurgical coal demand backed by steel mills and merchant coke plants
- Vietnam: fresh Covid-19 pandemic hits Vietnam’s steel demand
- Australia: Queensland met coal throughput down in July after financial year-end spike
- Australia: high prices fuel new met coal mine developments and project restarts
- Supply beyond Australia
- US: strike at Warrior’s mines shows no sign of letting up
- US: Chinese demand bonanza rolls on
- Russia: rail capacity and accident disruptions limit eastbound exports
- Indonesia: new coking coal mine project
Tables and charts
This report includes 8 images and tables including:
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- Indian coke exports and imports
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Crude steel production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Queensland ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)
- US metallurgical coal exports to China
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook March 2024
Premium hard coking coal prices plummet due to soft demand and increased supply
$5,000
Commodity Market Report
LNG short-term analytics: Monthly outlook
Monthly update of LNG market outlook including price forecast and market webinars.
$4,000
Commodity Market Report
India coal short-term outlook April 2024
Indian coal production touched 1 billion tons in the financial year 2023-24
$5,000
