Commodity Market Report
Metallurgical coal market short-term outlook December 2021
Report summary
December brought continued falling prices though levels remain well into the US$300/t range for both CFR China and FOB Australia PHCC spot cargos. China continued to put the vice to hot metal production as blast furnace operating rates remained low. Domestic coal supply, while not at November’s incredible levels, remained robust. A turn of events drove up domestic coal prices including coke restocking and mid-month accident. Seaborne import demand into China was muted. Spot demand for Australian and other suppliers’ coals proved strong as prices curved up in the later half of December. The next quarter provides an interesting period for both supply and demand as China takes a holiday and celebrates its Olympic limelight.
Table of contents
- Supply tightness and sentiment lift seaborne prices
- Prices rebound on safety crackdowns and improved coke demand
- Outlook: supply tightness to rule Q1 markets
- Outlook: price declines beyond Winter Olympics period
- China: production restrictions continue as Beijing monitors economy
- India: imports closing out the year on a record note
- Australia: Queensland rainfall, Covid uncertainty and Grosvenor delay dampens price fall
- Australia: rainfall curbs Queensland port throughput in November
- Australia: Coronado pulls back its guidance after Curragh restart
- Australia: positive signs for South32’s Dendrobium extension
- Mozambique: Jindal subsidiary Vulcan buys Moatize
- Canada: lingering supply chain disruptions push Teck sales lower in Q4 2021
- United States: LV HCC prices find support despite CFR China price decline
Tables and charts
This report includes 10 images and tables including:
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- Indian coking coal and PCI imports
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Crude steel production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Average rainfall across Qld met coal mines
- Worst impacted Qld met coal mines (1 Nov to 12 Dec)
- Queensland ports: Met coal exports (Mt per month)
- Difference between CFR China netback to US and US Hampton Roads LV
What's included
This report contains:
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