Commodity Market Report
Metallurgical coal market short-term outlook July 2021
Report summary
Steel raw materials are increasingly under pressure because of post-pandemic stimulus, and consumer demand. Miners both inside and outside China are struggling to cope. A combination of covid outbreaks, weather disruptions and industrial disputes, have left Chinese markets short. Meanwhile, a shortage of BHP cargoes, and stuttering supply elsewhere in Australia, has been insufficient to meet the needs of international steel makers, some of whom are struggling to fill the gap left by US, Canadian and Russian coals chasing stratospheric prices in China. The market is under duress, but as China takes steps to curb steel production, and supply recovers through Q3 and Q4, there will be a rebalancing. But it is difficult to predict how quickly that will happen with further risks of covid outbreaks and climate-related disruptions.
Table of contents
- Chinese supply constraints playing a key role
- Supply outside China is also struggling
-
Outlook: Conditions to ease but when?
- China supply crunch to linger through August
- International supply also has room to grow
- Demand at risk from intervention
- China: steel demand topping out, but supply structurally tight
- Crude steel production looks set for a slower H2 as well
- Indian steel production gaining momentum, but domestic demand remains sluggish
- European flash floods a temporary disruption
- Australia: Queensland met coal throughput climbs to a financial year-end high
- Australia: BHP ends the financial year on a high note, while others fall short
- Mozambique: Early positive signs after Moatize’s upgrade not enough to change our forecast
- Supply elsewhere is under some duress
Tables and charts
This report includes 9 images and tables including:
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- India's coke exports and imports
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Crude steel production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Queensland ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)
- BMA quarterly production (Mt)
- Australia met coal production by company (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook February 2024
market hoping for material outcomes from the Two Sessions, will there be any?
$5,000
Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal 10-year investment horizon outlook - 2023
Will investing in metallurgical coal pay off over the next decade?
$10,000
Insight
Demystifying India’s metallurgical coal trade
An anchor for metallurgical seaborne coal trade
$1,100