Commodity Market Report
North America coal long-term outlook H2 2017: No federal carbon policy case
Report summary
In this No Carbon sensitivity, a future without any US federal carbon pricing effectively assumes a world in which federal climate change efforts are tabled and power sector carbon emissions are allowed to continue to grow unabated. However, given the current momentum in investment seen within US power & renewables markets, even without a carbon tax to incentivize further de-carbonization, power sector emissions grow relatively slowly throughout the outlook.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- This No Carbon case represents the absence of any kind of federal carbon policy but maintains non-federal CO2 cap-and-trade programs and regional CO2 markets such as California-AB32, RGGI and Canadian initiatives
- Removal of the Federal carbon tax assumptions leads to significant inter-fuel competition and altered plant dispatch dynamics post-2028
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