North America coal short-term outlook April 2019: Export conditions deteriorate

Seaborne prices remained under pressure in April and continued sliding downward after a difficult March for US exporters. Price decline eventually levelled off, but shoulder season is in full swing and gas and renewable competition is still fierce in Europe. Despite these conditions, we expect some upward price movement in the export market during the second half of the 2019 as buyers replenish stockpiles in preparation for heating demand. Domestically, coal deliveries via rail and barge are still working to recover from the disruptive beginning to 2019 when flooding and frigid temperatures took hold of US infrastructure. Spring EGU demand is weak, leaving suppliers in most regions waiting for higher temperatures and prices to come in the coming months.