Commodity Market Report

North America coal short-term outlook August 2019: where did summer demand support go?

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30 August 2019

North America coal short-term outlook August 2019: where did summer demand support go?

Report summary

As US coal producers search for a silver lining in this summer market, they seem to only be finding grey skies. Mild temperatures have shaved the peak off summer demand. The juggernaut of associated gas production from the Permian has sent gas prices to almost below US$2/mmbtu at Henry Hub in August. International demand has weakened, with a strengthening US dollar and declining demand in Europe as low-priced gas plagues coal generation abroad as well. With little outlet for relief, there has been a reckoning for coal producers, particularly thermal players, over the last few months with announced bankruptcies and production cuts. Cloud Peak, Blackjewel, and Blackhawk remain under bankruptcy and most are auctioning assets. Alliance, Peabody, and Contura have all announced curtailments in production. More is yet to come, as producers struggle to make it through until a stronger winter demand (and hoping it is a cold one).

Table of contents

  • Metallurgical
  • Thermal export
  • Metallurgical export

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Key metallurgical coal prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
  • Total EGU coal generation (TWh)
  • NAPP Netback prices into ARA
  • PRB netback prices into South Korea (against Indonesia)
  • Thermal and metallurgical coal exports (Mst)
  • US apparent capacity vs. EIA annualised weekly shipments
  • EGU Stockpiles by Census Region (Mst)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    WM Coal Monthly North America August 2019.xlsx

    XLSX 1.71 MB

  • Document

    North America coal short-term outlook August 2019: where did summer demand support go?

    ZIP 1.09 MB

  • Document

    North America coal short-term outlook August 2019: where did summer demand support go?

    ZIP 2.71 MB

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