Insight
Now you see it, now you don’t: detecting seasonality in seaborne thermal coal markets
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
In short-term thermal coal forecasting, a significant amount of weight is normally given to the regional seasonal buying patterns of utilities. This is a time-proven and well-documented analytical approach. However, when seaborne imports are below 20% of total demand, predicting short-term imports using seasonality does not work well. When seaborne imports approach 100% of total burn, seasonality does appear to be a valid input to short-term forecasting. Consequently seasonality is a useful tool in forecasting seaborne trade but is limited by country demand characteristics, and should therefore be used judiciously.
Table of contents
- Summary
- Global seaborne imports
- Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
- China
- India
- Factors affecting results
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Historical seaborne thermal imports by month (Mt)Japan coal burn (Mt)Japan imports by quarter (Mt)
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Trending quarterly Japan imports (Mt)Japan monthly imports (Mt)South Korea monthly imports (Mt)Taiwan monthly imports (Mt)China coal burn (LS, Mt) and fraction of seaborne imports (RS, %)China imports by quarter (Mt)Trending quarterly China imports (Mt)China monthly imports (Mt)India coal burn (LS, Mt) and fraction of seaborne imports (RS, %)
- 4 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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