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9 Pages

Ocean freight outlook for the seaborne coal trade market


Ocean freight outlook for the seaborne coal trade market

Report summary

 During 2015 the ocean freight market for dry bulk commodities has seen probably the lowest ocean freight rates since the late 1980s. The outlook for the seaborne dry bulk (SDB) trade presents large number of uncertainties as it has entered into a lower growth rate stage. The SDB trade is expected to growth at 1.4% pa during the next five years, which contrasts significantly with the past 13 years where the SDB trade grew at an annual rate of 6.8%. The reduced growth rates are mainly caused by a lower demand for iron ore in China, which has averaged 16% pa in the last ten years, and now are expected to fall to 3% to 4% in the middle term. We are forecasting that SDB trade will growth at 2.8% during 2016 and 2017. Low ocean freight rates continue to be the result of an oversupply of vessel capacity.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Ocean freight outlook for coal seaborne trade market sector PDF - 581.35 KB 9 Pages, 0 Tables, 13 Figures
  • 2015 OCEAN FREIGHT RATES H2 2015 (Real US).xls XLS - 396.50 KB

Description

This Coal Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

Participants, suppliers and advisors can use it to look at the trends, risks and issues within the coal industry and gain an alternative point of view when making decisions.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets.

Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future decision making. From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Seaborne dry bulk trade
    • Dry bulk carriers fleet distribution by year of build (YTD October 2015)

In this report there are 13 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Seaborne dry bulk trade
    • Seaborne dry bulk trade (Mt)
    • Dry bulk trade net increase and 4TC average Baltic Capesize Index
    • Baltic Dry Bulk Index history
    • Ocean freight outlook for the seaborne coal trade market: Image 4
    • Net increase in vessel fleet (Mdwt)
    • Ocean freight outlook for the seaborne coal trade market: Image 6
    • Ocean freight outlook for the seaborne coal trade market: Image 7
    • Bunker price in Singapore vs Dubai oil price
    • Baltic Atlantic capsize voyages routes C7 and C4 vs bunker prices at Rotterdam
    • Baltic capesize time charter and voyages routes rates
    • Capesize earnings forecast (real 2015 US$/day)
    • Panamax earnings forecast (real 2015 US$/day)
    • Ocean freight rate cost assumptions for main ocean freight coal routes (Real 2015 US $/t)
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