Ocean freight outlook for the seaborne coal trade market

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Report summary

During 2015 the ocean freight market for dry bulk commodities has seen probably the lowest ocean freight rates since the late 1980s. The outlook for the seaborne dry bulk (SDB) trade presents large number of uncertainties as it has entered into a lower growth rate stage. The SDB trade is expected to growth at 1.4% pa during the next five years, which contrasts significantly with the past 13 years where the SDB trade grew at an annual rate of 6.8%. The reduced growth rates are mainly caused by a lower demand for iron ore in China, which has averaged 16% pa in the last ten years, and now are expected to fall to 3% to 4% in the middle term.We are forecasting that SDB trade will growth at 2.8% during 2016 and 2017. Low ocean freight rates continue to be the result of an oversupply of vessel capacity.

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  • Document

    Ocean freight outlook for coal seaborne trade market sector

    PDF 581.35 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:


  • Seaborne dry bulk trade (Mt)
  • Dry bulk trade net increase and 4TC average Baltic Capesize Index
  • Baltic Dry Bulk Index history
  • Ocean freight outlook for the seaborne coal trade market: Image 4
  • Net increase in vessel fleet (Mdwt)
  • Ocean freight outlook for the seaborne coal trade market: Image 6
  • Ocean freight outlook for the seaborne coal trade market: Image 7
  • Bunker price in Singapore vs Dubai oil price
  • Baltic Atlantic capsize voyages routes C7 and C4 vs bunker prices at Rotterdam
  • Baltic capesize time charter and voyages routes rates
  • Capesize earnings forecast (real 2015 US$/day)
  • Panamax earnings forecast (real 2015 US$/day)
  • Ocean freight rate cost assumptions for main ocean freight coal routes (Real 2015 US $/t)

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