Insight
Three factors driving China's thermal coal market in 2026
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China's thermal coal market experienced oversupply throughout 2025. In July, China implemented anti-involution policies to curtail overproduction. Immediately, coal prices reversed upward, although domestic supply returned to normal levels during the last two months of 2025. The oversupply situation risks continuing into 2026. Meanwhile, China's seaborne imports dropped 56 Mt, or 15%, year-on-year in 2025. This decline failed to reverse the market imbalance. Indonesia's government plans to cut coal production quotas in 2026, further reducing China's seaborne imports. Will China curtail supply again in 2026? Will reduced seaborne imports reverse the market to balanced or tight conditions? Read our report to understand the implications.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- China's thermal coal demand declined in 2025 and will continue falling in 2026
- China's domestic supply will rise in 2026 without further government intervention
- Indonesia aims to generate more revenue by cutting coal exports in 2026
- Indonesia's supply policy will drive China's thermal coal market in 2026
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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China’s power generation mix, TWhIndonesia’s thermal coal exports volumes and average prices
What's included
This report contains:
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