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China's electrolyser landscape 2026: consolidation and export
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Report summary
Chinese domestic electrolyser bid prices have collapsed 35% to $135/kW in two years, approaching breakeven and forcing market restructuring. With 100+ OEMs competing domestically, consolidation is inevitable through 2028 as small and mid-tier players exit. Tier 1 OEMs will dominate international markets, targeting 21 GW global demand across Middle East, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific. Export pricing maintains large differential over domestic rates, creating critical margin recovery opportunity. Chinese manufacturers diversify strategies beyond direct export, including technology licensing and manufacturing partnerships, whilst leveraging 3-4x cost advantage versus Western alternatives.
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