Inside the hydrogen strategies of Europe's fuel suppliers

Europe's fuel suppliers face mounting pressure to comply with RED III RFNBO mandates by 2030 - but corporate hydrogen strategies cannot be reliably inferred from high-level metrics alone. Wood Mackenzie's asset-level analysis of the top 10 European road fuel producers translates regulatory obligations into refinery-specific implications, revealing where renewable hydrogen adoption is technically straightforward and where compliance will remain challenging. Our analysis identifies a clear group of leaders - BP, Moeve, Shell, TotalEnergies and Repsol — and exposes significant gaps across the rest of the market. With 81% of assessed refineries remaining uncovered or only partially covered by RFNBO projects, competitive advantage will increasingly depend on site-specific readiness rather than portfolio-wide commitments.