Commodity Market Report

A change in the political winds: Mexico gas, power, and renewables long-term outlook H2 2018

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11 February 2019

A change in the political winds: Mexico gas, power, and renewables long-term outlook H2 2018

Report summary

Entering 2019, the Mexico gas and power market reform faces new questions as the new administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador begins. The day-ahead energy and short-term capacity markets enter their fourth year of operation, and three highly successful long-term auctions are unmitigated successes that have procured solar and wind at globally low prices, but a delay to the fourth auction raises many questions about the future of the reform. Progress in late 2018 is providing a glimpse of things to come – reinforcing one of our long-held key messages. Continued debottlenecking of the pipeline system will allow low-cost US gas to penetrate further south, and power market dispatch will follow suit. Lower cost generation will also help push power prices down in the near- to mid-term. Prices will fall into line with marginal gas generation as we saw at the onset of the market in 2016, but time-of-day pricing will take on new dynamics as the classic duck curve develops by the mid-2020s

Table of contents

  • Gas markets
  • Power markets

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Mexico_GPR_Long_Term_Outlook_12_31_2018.pdf

    PDF 3.90 MB

  • Document

    LTO_H2_2018_Power_Load_Forecast_Mexico_12_31_2018.xlsx

    XLSX 99.32 KB

  • Document

    LTO_H2_2018_Power_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Real_Mexico_12_31_2018.xlsx

    XLSX 3.13 MB

  • Document

    LTO_H2_2018_Power_Supply_Demand_Energy_Mexico_12_31_2018.xlsx

    XLSX 591.76 KB

  • Document

    LTO_H2_2018_Clean_Energy_Compliance_Mexico_12_31_2018.xlsx

    XLSX 69.96 KB

  • Document

    LTO_H2_2018_Gas_Demand_Breakout_Mexico_12_31_2018.xlsx

    XLSX 870.51 KB

  • Document

    LTO_H2_2018_Gas_Price_Outlook_Mexico_12_31_2018.xlsx

    XLSX 199.81 KB

  • Document

    LTO_H2_2018_Gas_Supply_Breakout_Mexico_12_31_2018.xlsx

    XLSX 1.09 MB

  • Document

    LTO_H2_2018_Gas_Supply_Demand_Balance_Mexico_12_31_2018.xlsx

    XLSX 569.00 KB

  • Document

    LTO_H2_2018_Power_Capacity_Prices_Mexico_12_31_2018.xlsx

    XLSX 88.35 KB

  • Document

    LTO_H2_2018_Power_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Real_Mexico_12_31_2018.xlsx

    XLSX 287.58 KB

  • Document

    A change in the political winds: Mexico gas, power, and renewables long-term outlook H2 2018

    ZIP 10.08 MB

  • Document

    A change in the political winds: Mexico gas, power, and renewables long-term outlook H2 2018

    ZIP 10.73 MB

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