Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

Canadian market fundamentals have reversed direction in the last six months — AECO prices are down 50% and global oil prices have slumped by nearly 40%, resulting in a declining Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) gas production outlook  for 2016. The productivity improvements and lower service costs will reduce the price floor for WCSB supplies, but there is more competition than ever from  Lower 48 supplies. WCSB production is expected to decline though 2017 before rebounding.

What's included?

This report includes 9 file(s)

  • Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015 PDF - 754.10 KB 28 Pages, 3 Tables, 21 Figures
  • NAGS LTO Demand Breakout H1 2015.xls XLS - 1.49 MB
  • NAGS LTO Infrastructure H1 2015.xls XLS - 156.50 KB
  • NAGS LTO LNG Breakout H1 2015.xls XLS - 799.50 KB
  • NAGS LTO NGV Breakout H1 2015.xls XLS - 665.00 KB
  • NAGS LTO Price Outlook H1 2015 - highlights version.xls XLS - 613.50 KB
  • NAGS LTO Price Outlook H1 2015.xls XLS - 788.50 KB
  • NAGS LTO Supply and Demand Balances H1 2015.xls XLS - 1021.00 KB
  • NAGS LTO Supply Breakout H1 2015.xls XLS - 840.00 KB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Overview
      • Impacts to our gas supply outlook in a lower oil price world
    • Regional production overview
      • Alberta
        • Deep Basin rich-gas
        • Montney shale (Alberta sub-plays)
        • Duvernay shale
      • British Columbia
        • Montney shale (British Columbia sub-plays)
        • Horn River/Liard shales
      • Eastern Canada
      • Canadian gas cost outlook
  • Demand
    • Overview
      • Oil sands
    • Power
      • Core industrial
      • Residential and commercial
      • Natural gas vehicles and marine bunkering
  • Prices
    • North America: debottlenecking projects hold down Henry Hub price appreciation
    • AECO: limited upside potential until LNG ramps up
    • Western Canada: LNG projects dictate pipeline development
    • Eastern Canada: hanging onto WCSB a bit longer
  • Trade
    • Overview
    • Piped exports to the US
      • Eastern Canada and US Northeast: hanging onto WCSB a bit longer
      • US Midwest: competing for market share
      • West: filling up the pipe
      • Pacific Northwest and Northern California: capitalizing on discounted AECO
    • Canada LNG exports
      • Pacific Basin demand softens
      • Canadian projects face headwinds
      • Overview of Canadian LNG export projects
        • Major Western Canada LNG projects
        • Eastern Canada LNG projects

In this report there are 24 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Oil and gas price outlook
  • Supply
    • Canadian drilling forecast by target
    • Key shale drilling forecast
    • Alberta production by key area
    • British Columbia production by key area
  • Demand
    • Canadian natural gas demand
    • Gas demand for oil sands development
    • Provincial gas demand for power
    • Load growth outlook (vs. 2014)
    • Natural gas demand for transportation
  • Prices
    • North American natural gas prices
    • Western Canada basis outlook
    • Eastern Canada basis outlook
  • Trade
    • Canadian exports by market
    • Net piped exports
    • Flow outlook on TransCanada mainline
    • Flows on major US export pipelines
    • Michicagan and Indiana demand by supply area
    • Rest of Midwest* demand by supply area
    • WCSB dependent LNG export projects
    • Map - key export infrastructure
    • Small-scale North America West Coast LNG overview
    • Major Canadian LNG project overview
    • Eastern Canada LNG project overview
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