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Chile gas and power long-term outlook 2019

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18 December 2019

Chile gas and power long-term outlook 2019

Report summary

Three factors are reshaping the energy industry in Chile: The coal decommissioning program led by the government, the fast pace of renewables penetration, and Argentinian gas prices. In this outlook we analyse future monthly and hourly power operation in Chile to depict the impacts of solar increase in the power mix and transmission flows. Also, we analysed the commercial aspects to substitute LNG contracted volumes by Argentinian gas, including both infrastructure and substitution costs challenges. Read this Southern Cone Gas and Power Service report for more details on: • What coal plants will be decommissioned according to the government’s program. • How the interplay of coal decommissioning and solar increase will impact gas plants power generation. • The future power supply cost curve in Chile and long-term power spot prices. • What are the commercial aspects to take into account for the LNG substitution by Argentinian gas and future role of LNG in Chile

Table of contents

  • After the first phase of the coal plant decommissioning plan, we expect only four plants to remain online by 2040, increasing system seasonality
  • Solar expansion will require the support of quick-response technologies
  • Replacing LNG with Argentinian gas in Chile will be limited by legacy LNG contract economics
  • LNG volumes will remain at the same levels on an annual basis but flexibility requirements will change
  • New features were added in the excel file

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    Chile gas and power long-term outlook 2019

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    Base Case - Chile Gas and Power long-term outlook.xlsm

    XLSM 7.94 MB

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    Base Case with variable cost - Chile Gas and Power long-term outlook.xlsm

    XLSM 7.93 MB

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    Dry Case - Chile Gas and Power long-term outlook.xlsm

    XLSM 7.97 MB

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    Vaca Muerta - Chile Gas and Power long-term outlook.xlsm

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    Chile Gas and Power long-term outlook 2019.pdf

    PDF 3.74 MB

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