China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2019 Report

Commodity Market Report 22 August 2019

This report is currently unavailable

Share link

First name
Last name
Job Title
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

Submit Category

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

2018 saw China build on the coal-to-gas switching momentum of 2017 and it continued to increase gas demand at a fast pace. Gas demand grew by 17% year-on-year, or up by 41 bcm. China managed to avoid gas shortages in winter 2018/19. However, China’s gas demand has faced multiple headwinds in 2019. Current policies lean towards preventing a deeper slowdown of the economy while the pace of gas demand creation has moderated. In this update, we’ve adjusted down China’s gas demand compared with our H2 2018 outlook, primarily due to the government’s more cautious approach towards fuel choices and the downgraded GDP forecast. We have also downgraded the domestic supply outlook as unconventional resources face more challenges, which provokes a greater need for LNG imports in the long term.

Introduction
Structure of gas demand gradually changing with increasing seasonality
Gas production ramps up faster near term, underpinned by conventional sources; long-term potential hinges on unconventional sources
LNG imports will break 100 mmtpa by the early 2030s, despite more pipeline imports
Reforms will reshuffle the industrial landscape
Non-NOCs will increase their presence, slowly
Will China exert greater influence on global LNG pricing?
Key data tables
Gas sector policy and regulation
- Midstream reform is gaining momentum
- Midstream-related regulations are being updated to pave way for third-party access
- Local governments streamline end-user gas prices
- China still reviewing its fuel-switching policies
- China raises US LNG import tariffs to 25%
Regulatory structure
Gas demand overview
Industrial sector (including feedstock)
22 more item(s)...