Commodity Market Report
China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2019
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
2018 saw China build on the coal-to-gas switching momentum of 2017 and it continued to increase gas demand at a fast pace. Gas demand grew by 17% year-on-year, or up by 41 bcm. China managed to avoid gas shortages in winter 2018/19. However, China’s gas demand has faced multiple headwinds in 2019. Current policies lean towards preventing a deeper slowdown of the economy while the pace of gas demand creation has moderated. In this update, we’ve adjusted down China’s gas demand compared with our H2 2018 outlook, primarily due to the government’s more cautious approach towards fuel choices and the downgraded GDP forecast. We have also downgraded the domestic supply outlook as unconventional resources face more challenges, which provokes a greater need for LNG imports in the long term.
Table of contents
- Introduction
- Structure of gas demand gradually changing with increasing seasonality
- Gas production ramps up faster near term, underpinned by conventional sources; long-term potential hinges on unconventional sources
- LNG imports will break 100 mmtpa by the early 2030s, despite more pipeline imports
- Reforms will reshuffle the industrial landscape
- Non-NOCs will increase their presence, slowly
- Will China exert greater influence on global LNG pricing?
- Key data tables
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Gas sector policy and regulation
- Midstream reform is gaining momentum
- Midstream-related regulations are being updated to pave way for third-party access
- Local governments streamline end-user gas prices
- China still reviewing its fuel-switching policies
- China raises US LNG import tariffs to 25%
- Regulatory structure
- Gas demand overview
- Industrial sector (including feedstock)
- 22 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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China gas demand by sectorChina gas demand by provinceChina gas market balance
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Supply changes vs H2 2018 outlookChina power market balanceEconomic indicatorsChina energy policy making and regulatory structureTotal China gas demand by sectorTotal China gas demand by provinceIndustrial fuel Gas Demand by ProvincesFertilisers and Chemicals gas demand by top provinceResidential/commercial gas demand by province
- 31 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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