Europe energy prices long-term outlook: H2 2020

As coronavirus vaccination rolls out across Europe, our H2 2020 European energy price outlook incorporates our post pandemic view across Europe’s key commodities to 2050. Future price tracks are still uncertain and results in greater price and volume risks to Europe’s energy markets. • Total world oil demand is revised downward throughout the forecast period reaching a 2.7 millionb/d adjustment lower in 2040, resulting in lower Brent oil prices. • Spot gas prices in Europe have recovered from record lows, supported by a cold winter, demand recovery and marginal LNG cargoes being delivered preferentially to the higher priced Asian market. • With regards to the coal market, post-pandemic recovery and new coal-fired projects in Asia will lift global thermal coal prices over the next 3-4 years. • Uncertainty around the extent of ETS reform, and the broad policy background against which that will be made, has seen a strong escalation in allowance prices through the first quarter of 2021.