Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q2 2023
TTF prices have crashed to US$8/mmbtu, supported by a high storage fill and weak demand response. But contango prices for winter 2023 and the rest of 2024 still feature the risk of a cold winter and market tightness as Europe and Asia compete for limited LNG supply. Under normal weather conditions, Europe will end winter 2023 with storage levels at 39%. With higher injections required in the summer of 2024 to reach the EU 90% target levels, prices in 2024 will need to sit in the high band of the coal-to-gas switching range and close to oil parity to subdue gas demand. Furthermore, the expiration of the Ukraine transit contract at the end of 2024 will reduce Russian supply even more, which may put the EU storage target at risk in 2025.