Commodity Market Report
Europe indigenous gas supply long-term outlook H1 2019
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
European indigenous gas production declines through our forecast but there are bright spots across the region and companies continue to invest heavily in exploration and production. Both frontier acreage and mature regions are showing results. 2018 saw immature West of Shetland record the UK's biggest find in a decade, only to be outdone this month by a 1.5-tcf discovery in the ageing Central North Sea. They both highlight the potential for quality finds still to be uncovered. But over the long-term, investment will compete with low-cost proven reserves in other regions, and political and regulatory hurdles will need to be addressed to encourage sustained investment in Europe.
Table of contents
- Europe’s gas import dependency will maintain pace as indigenous supply continues to decline. Game changing discoveries and continuous investment is required to revitalise Europe over the long-term
- Norway remains the bedrock of indigenous European supply.
- The UK still has room for production growth
- Romania's Black Sea: ongoing fiscal and regulatory instability delay FID
- Prospects in smaller producing countries
- Cyprus is pivotal for development options in the East Med
- The East Med pipeline to Europe is on the back burner
- Greenfield liquefaction facility in Cyprus cannot be ruled out
- Unconventional supply
- Future challenges and opportunities
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Europe indigenous supplyGroningen production – WM 2019 Base CaseGas fields in the Netherlands
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UK Atlantic Margin production by category (2015 – 2040)Cyprus exports to Egypt – WM 2019 Base Case OutlookSupply by status
What's included
This report contains:
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