European gas price outlook: 12 months ahead (Q1 2015)

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19 February 2015

European gas price outlook: 12 months ahead (Q1 2015)

Report summary

Spot prices are expected to remain sustained at US$8/mmbtu throughout Q1 - following a period of maximised storage withdrawals more Russian gas will be required towards the end of Q1. High storage injection requirement through the summer will result in a growing call on Russian gas, including spot volumes, sustaining prices at US$7/mmbtu, consistent with the coal to gas switching cost in the UK. In Q4, cheaper Russian contract gas will result in European spot prices falling below US$7/mmbtu.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Gas supply Q1 2015 - Q4 2015
      • LNG imports - rest of Europe (included in analysis)
      • LNG imports - Southern Europe (NOT included in analysis)
      • Indigenous gas including Norway
      • Non-Russia pipe imports
    • Gas demand Q1 2015 - Q4 2015
      • European demand
      • Ukraine call on gas through Europe
      • Europe spot price outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

  • Chart 1 - European net LNG imports
  • Chart 2 – Contestable demand: European demand* vs indigenous production and non Russian imports
  • Chart 3 - Russian imports and storage*
  • Chart 4 - European spot (NBP) vs Russia contract

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    European gas price outlook: 12 months ahead (Q1 2015)

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