Global gas: Global supply

European production shows signs of resilience in the near term. Norway will aim to sustain production and maximise recovery rates from existing fields. Substantial investment in exploration and development from China’s NOCs, driven by energy security policies, will push Chinese production from 234 bcm in 2023 to 334 bcm by 2033. Production in the Middle East will jump from 696 bcm in 2023 to 836 bcm by 2033, with most of this growth attributed to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. In Africa, production will climb modestly reaching 268 bcm by 2033. Russian production will recover gradually to 655 bcm in 2033, as the Power of Siberia and Arctic LNG-2 ramp up and the Far-East pipeline is developed, partially offsetting exports to European markets. The rapid expansion of US LNG capacity will propel US production from 1,029 bcm in 2023 to 1,256 bcm in 2033.