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Global gas spot prices - what will set the floor?

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Report summary

The combination of slower Asian LNG demand growth and low oil prices has developed stronger price convergence between gas spot prices in Asia and Europe. And looking ahead 130 mmtpa of new supply can be seen coming into the market over the next 5 years mostly from Australia and the US. As the global market absorbs all the new LNG as it tries to balance new floors for spot prices are likely to be tested. We address some of the levers that will influence global gas price floor levels. This includes demand response coal/gas competition in Europe and additional power demand in Asia including from coal displacement. It also includes supply response from high cost gas in China shut in of US LNG and Russia's behaviour. We conclude that the price of coal will be a key determinant to future gas spot prices and the potential for shut in of US LNG.

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    Global gas spot prices - what will set the floor?

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Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

Images

  • Global gas dynamics – key short term demand and supply responses to 2021
  • Chart 1: Gas:coal competition in UK (2015-21)
  • Chart 2: Gas:coal competition in Germany (2015-21)
  • Chart 3: Gas:coal competition in Japan*
  • Chart 4: Guangdong gas vs coal economics*
  • Chart 5: US LNG economics into Europe
  • Chart 6: US LNG cash costs into Europe

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