NBP winter forward market: Buy or sell?

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Report summary

The UK gas market has been in a comfortable gas balancing position since 2008, due to the combination of declining domestic demand, particularly from the power sector, and abundant gas supply availability. This has resulted in the UK being a net exporter to continental Europe and the NBP and other NW European hubs trading at discount to oil-indexed European contracts. However, as the global LNG market has tightened and indigenous production has continued to underperform, the UK balance has...

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    NBP winter forward market: Buy or sell?

    PDF 465.98 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Introduction and background
    • Demand
    • UK indigenous production
    • Norway
    • LNG
    • UK storage
    • Continental Europe
    • Aggregate position
  • Conclusions

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:


  • LNG and IUK flows
  • NBP, average Russian contract in Europe* and NE Asia LNG prices - History and forward market
  • LNG net trade: winter 2012/13 vs winter 2011/12
  • LNG net trade: winter 2013/14 vs winter 2012/13


  • Winter gas balance (Oct-Mar)

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