North America gas long-term outlook H1 2019 data: market shows resilience in face of associated gas

The threat of associated supply is real and imminent. Rising tight oil production and new pipeline projects could unleash over 13 bcfd of associated gas between 2019 and 2025. Are the growth prospects for dry gas producers in jeopardy, and how low could Henry Hub prices go? Our latest North America gas long-term outlook uncovers remarkable market resiliency to the rise of associated supply and its adverse impact on price trajectory. Dry gas production growth tempers, but it still grows, and stronger structural demand in North America will protect Henry Hub from further downside risks. But in the long term, deferred drilling as a result of increased associated supply leads to more running room for dry gas in the 2030s. Another wave of LNG hits, but even then, the ascent of Henry Hub remains relatively contained.