Commodity Market Report
North America gas markets long-term outlook H1 2013
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Report summary
North American gas markets rallied from 2012 lows, but despite the improved price levels, gas-related rig counts continue to decline. This discipline on the production side is matched by a relatively stable market size, so for the 2013-’15 period, we expect Henry Hub prices to range between $3.75 and $4.25/mmbtu in real terms.
Table of contents
-
Executive summary
-
Prices and Markets
- Through 2016: domestic markets define price
- Back half of the decade: a different dash for gas
- Long-term markets
-
Prices and Markets
-
Supply
- Producers response to dictate medium term production rebound
-
Key plays-growth remains concentrated on leading plays
- Marcellus-wells and drilling continue to improve while infrastructure remains a constraint
- Piceance-Marginal gas resource, but massive opportunity
- Regional production trends
- Drilling outlook-reduced call on gas rigs till the second half of the decade
- Canada
-
Key risks to outlook
- Downside pricing risks
- Upside pricing risks
- Mexico: Power generation leads to increased imports
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Demand
-
Power generation
- Key messages
- Major risk factors
- Power sector gas burn changes
- Coal-gas substitution dynamics
- Regional distribution
- Industrial
- Residential and commercial
-
US NGV outlook
- Transport
- Marine bunker fuel
- Global markets
- North American LNG export outlook
- US
- Canada
- Alaska
- Export Policy
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Proposed Projects
- US Lower 48 LNG
- Alaska LNG
- Canada LNG
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Canada
- Domestic Demand
- Power
- Oil Sands
- Core Industrial
- Residential/Commercial
- Canada NGV outlook
- Net Exports
- Mexico
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Power generation
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Infrastructure
- Pipeline expansions
- Marcellus and Utica-accommodating growth
- Redirecting Western supplies.
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Basis: weak east, weaker west, and the low seasonal spreads
- The Northeast: Changing dynamics
- The Northeast: The infrastructure impact
- The Rockies and California: Near term together, long term apart
- AECO, Dawn, Chicago: Down they go
- Gulf Coast: Shale Gas vs. LNG Exports
Tables and charts
This report includes 46 images and tables including:
- Demand: Image 1
- Demand: Image 2
- Table 1. Key US plays supply metrics
- Figure 1. North American supply growth (relative to 2013) by region and key play
- Supply: Image 6
- Supply: Image 7
- Supply: Table 2
- Chart 10. Mexico supply
- Demand: Image 6
- Demand: Image 7
- Chart 17. Core heating demand and use per customer
- Infrastructure: Table 1
- Infrastructure: Table 2
- Infrastructure: Image 1
- Infrastructure: Image 2
- Chart 31. Rockies export flows
- Chart 1. Relative gas, coal (heat rate adjusted) and oil prices
- Chart 2. Marginal play and price
- Chart 3. Change in production and play breakevens
- Chart 4. Change in Marcellus production by area from
- Supply: Image 2
- Supply: Image 3
- Supply: Image 4
- Table 3. Power sector gas risks
- Chart 13. Power sector gas burn
- Chart 14. Coal-gas substitution versus fuel price ratio
- Figure 2. Census-region gas burn, 20130-2025
- Demand: Image 9
- Demand: Image 10
- Demand: Image 11
- Demand: Image 12
- Chart 22. Global gas price outlook
- Chart 23. North America LNG export outlook
- Demand: Table 2
- Demand: Table 3
- Demand: Table 4
- Chart 24. Canadian natural gas demand
- Chart 25. Canadian power demand by province
- Chart 26. Gas demand for oil sands by technology
- Chart 27. Canadian NGV demand
- Chart 28. Mexico demand growth
- Chart 32. Marcellus basis outlook
- Chart 33. Northeast basis outlook
- Chart 34. California and Rockies basis outlook
- Chart 35. Midwest and Canadian basis outlook
- Chart 36. Texas basis outlook
What's included
This report contains:
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