North America gas short-term outlook: exports awaken, but will the production empire stop striking back?

In August, record daily power burns were the one thing keeping prices from sinking into the abyss. Rising production and a pause in export growth were the ballast weighing the ship down. Will production finally respond to low prices just as power demand is set to fall in the shoulder months? The NYMEX August contract settled at a multi-year low of $2.14/mmbtu, and we do not think the September contract will be much changed. As we inch closer to closing out the injection season nowhere near storage containment, current market prices seem disconnected with fundamentals, as it is too early to be discounting the upcoming winter. And what will 2021 hold? Please note that we have extended our forecast through 2021 in this update.