North America gas short-term outlook: Winter arrives

After a mild start to the winter, colder than normal temperatures are blanketing North America and increasing heating loads. However, persistence of significant cold into December is not currently forecast. Henry Hub gas prices that have rallied above $6/mmbtu will increasingly be pressured by higher supply and the uncertainty around Freeport LNG’s restart. After a period of imbalance, North America gas markets are returning to more a fundamentally balanced state. As supply growth starts to outpace demand growth, gas prices will head lower. We look into the following key North America gas market fundamentals this month: • Impact of a further Freeport LNG restart delay • Elevated gas burns and the path to thermal coal stockpile normalization • A world class industrial facility comes online with even a larger one announced