North America gas weekly update: A brave new world

A colder end to the month as we enter March continues to drawdown US gas storage levels. Although not running out of gas by a long stretch, the task to refill storage has become much harder. We expect market balancing mechanisms of production and power burns to help gas injections this Spring to start increasing. The escalating Ukraine conflict adds further upside pressure this injection season especially if some LNG feedgas requirements are needed to be turned back into the grid to help storage reach adequate levels prior to the start of next winter. Near the five year-average (2017-2021), under normal circumstances, fundamentally a 3.66 Tcf storage carry into the winter should not cause Henry Hub summer prices to be as elevated. But then again maybe we are entering a brave new world.