North America gas weekly update: April Fools?

The week ending 1 April is expected to flip back to one last withdrawal. A delayed start to the injection season with lingering cold weather, higher thermal coal prices, and record LNG feedgas levels amidst seemingly faltering US daily gas production can all be deemed culprits behind the powerful rally of Henry Hub gas prices above $6/mmbtu. But what if its more perception of an undersupplied market rather than reality? Despite signs of loosening market fundamentals further “proof in the pudding” is required. For starters, Spring injections need to ramp up beyond the pace of both the five-year average and last year. A sure fired way is through increased US gas production. Sitting in April versus October, there is still ample time for US producers to start ramping up volumes this summer with momentum into the winter. Or will market perceptions turn into reality and even further price upside be warranted?