North America gas weekly update: Higher for longer?

The prompt month contract continues its rally, touching $2.70/mmbtu recently after seeing a nadir near $2.00/mmbtu in early August. Under normal weather conditions, will these prices remain higher for longer? There are certainly factors to support the claim. Production is showing signs of weakness, especially in the Haynesville, and associated gas is not immune, as recent Permian flows have not increased significantly despite Gulf Coast Express already online. LNG exports are surging, despite earlier fears of an oversupplied market, and Mexican exports may surprise to the upside. With the supply-demand imbalance tightening, we seem likely to avert triple-digit injections for the remainder of the season, and as long as we stay beneath the working gas storage five-year average, prices seem likely to keep those winter premiums.