North America gas weekly update: Trick or treat?

By now it’s a broken record, but Henry Hub gas price volatility continues. A return to milder November weather contributes to the seesaw, but chatter around Russian gas flows to start commencing to fill Europe’s gas storage in about a week are bringing down TTF gas prices by several dollars. But what if this “treat” isn’t realized? Outside of weather, North America gas fundamentals are showing mixed messages: production is up, but LNG utilization at commissioning terminals is, too. Thermal coal stockpiles are down, contributing to higher gas burns, even with higher prices. Storage is almost at the five-year average. It’s a little hard to say what might slip out of balance; will weather provide a trick or a treat?