Commodity Market Report
Norway long-term gas supply outlook 2018
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Report summary
Norway remains the bedrock of indigenous European supply, providing much needed resource to the region. It is the second largest exporter of gas to Europe, with over 140 bcm of pipe export capacity and the 4 mmtpa Snohvit LNG plant. Pipe gas exports averaged 113 bcm over the last three years, up 15% from the start of the decade; output is sustained by key existing fields as well as new production from Aasta Hansteen. We expect Norway to continue defending its position in the European market with over 100 bcm of exports through 2024. Future successful exploration activity is key for our long-term production potential forecast to 2040.
Table of contents
- Norwegian gas production will remain fairly stable through the mid-term
- Aasta Hansteen field comes onstream after 20 years in the making
- Project pipeline remains dry as ageing fields naturally decline
- Exploration success, including Barents Sea, required to sustain long-term production
- Cost of marginal Norwegian supply is rising
- Recent Trends
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Outlook
- Export outlook
- Medium term
- Norway maintains export levels and defends European market share
- Long term
- The Baltic Pipe will increase Norway's optionality
- Short term
- Longer term
Tables and charts
This report includes 5 images and tables including:
- Delivered cost of Norwegian gas to Europe (2022)
- Breakeven cost of Norwegian gas*
- Norway pipe and LNG exports
- Norway production vs NPD (2013, 2014)
What's included
This report contains:
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