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Russian gas to China: 2019 start threatens China’s LNG import growth

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Report summary

Gazprom and CNPC announced they would start gas supplies via the yet to be built Power of Siberia pipeline on 20 December 2019. This is early in the previously agreed 2019 2021 start up window. The gas supply deal is significant in balancing China s long term gas supply and demand. However Russian gas exports will face challenges from cheap China domestic supplies in the near term. Given competition from domestic gas we think initial volumes could be small accommodating seasonal demand swings in China s northern markets. Potential for piped gas supply could discourage China's requirement for LNG. The earlier start up and ramp up of Russian gas exports could partially cause China s LNG demand growth to slow after 2020.

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Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

Images

  • Weighted average delivered costs to Russia-China border
  • Supply cost comparison in northern China in 2020
  • Russian East gas flow vs Chinese LNG demand
  • Power of Siberia and Amur GPP
  • Gazprom infrastructure expenditure
  • What to watch: Uncertainty around base-case scenario for Power of Siberia gas

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